Global Horizons

This issue opens with the author’s review of the continuing standoff between the US and Iran, even as they look for an acceptable off-ramp, while the international economy and individual states continue to suffer serious consequences. Meanwhile, President Trump has raised the ante by demanding that a swath of regional states must sign on to the Abraham Accords, underscoring his plan to establish firm control over the Middle East with Israel as its front end. 

Perhaps the most anticipated event during the month was US President Trump’s visit to China, which left open the question whether either side gained the upper hand as they committed to building a “constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability”on the basis of“fairness and reciprocity”. There was some forward movement on US-China trade and investment issues. 

In terms of outcomes, the subsequent visit of Russian President Putin to Beijing marking the 25th anniversary of the Friendship Treaty between Russia and China was more substantive, with an expansivejoint declaration being issued and commitments to continue strategic coordination to advance each other’s core interests and role on the global stage. Evolving cooperation between the two countries on Eurasian security architecture will need watching from India’s perspective. 

During the month, major nations from Europe to the Indo-Pacific continued to respond to evolving strategic developments, conflicts and economic stress. 

In a measured address at the annual Shangri-La dialogue in Singaporeon May 30, the US Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, made it clear that the Pacific remains America’s strategic priority and that China must respect the long-standing US position in the region as the US pursues a favourable, durable balance of power in which no state, including China, can impose its hegemony. Hegseth also made a reference to India acting in its own self-interest to maintain a regional balance of power and share the security burden, particularly in the Indian Ocean. 

The author goes on to review emerging difficulties for the Indian economy and underline the importance of restoring growth impulses to mitigate the current situation. He outlines the important steps taken by India during the monthon the external front to shore up energy security, enhance trade and investment flows, and strengthen technological partnerships, which were the highlight ofPM Modi’s visits to the UAE, Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands and Italy. 

India also hosted the meeting of BRICS Foreign Ministers on May 14-15, which was followed by a relatively substantive meeting of the QUAD FMs on May 26.US Secretary of State Rubio’s bilateral visit to India reflected a conscious effort to mitigate the negative impact of inexplicable actions taken by the Trump administration over the past year that have adversely affected India’s interests. It remains to be seen whether the trajectory of India-US relations will improve going forward.

To read this issue please click Global Horizons, Vol. IV, Issue 5.