DPG West Asia Review

DPG West Asia Review

Date: June 08, 2020

 
The COVID-19 induced economic crisis is showing no signs of abating in West Asia. In a report published on June 02, 2020, the Institute of International Finance has predicted the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states to suffer from the worst recession ever due to oil price crash and lockdowns. Fitch rating has also placed four of the 14 rated West Asia-North Africa sovereigns on negative outlook including Oman. In a further move to conserve finances, the Gulf countries such as Kuwait plan to bring down the expat population from present 70% to 30% in the near future.

On June 06, 2020, the OPEC plus agreed to an extension in oil production cuts through July 2020. Iraq and Nigeria which had earlier failed to comply with agreed cuts in May, both have now agreed to deeper cuts to compensate for their earlier failure.
 
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on June 05, 2020 voiced serious concerns about Iran violating restrictions imposed on its nuclear program through the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). According to the IAEA, Iran has continued to increase its stockpiles of enriched uranium. On the political front, the Islamic republic released Michael White, an American Navy veteran after more than a year in custody.

India repatriated 16,000 stranded Indians from UAE since May 07, 2020 as part of the “Vande Bharat Mission”. The coronavirus pandemic is also likely to affect annual Haj pilgrimage as it appears highly unlikely that Indian Muslims will be able to undertake the pilgrimage this year.

Russia has strongly reacted to the U.S. remarks about Russia’s destructive role in Syria. The Russian Foreign Ministry has asked the U.S. to leave Syria and deal with the on-going internal crisis in the aftermath of the killing of George Floyd. Russia has also carried out air-strikes in Northwest Syria for the first time in three months.

Considering the serious consequences of COVID-19 to war-torn Yemen, the United Nations and Saudi Arabia have raised $1.35 billion through a virtual donor’s conference.
Links to major developments in West Asia of strategic relevance to India, compiled from open source media, can be found below.