Myanmar’s Transition: Cosmetic shift or Substantive change?
In this brief, the author provides a nuanced assessment of Myanmar’s current political transition, questioning whether it represents a substantive change and a pathway for peace and reform or merely a cosmetic shift. Viewed against the broader regional context where democratic governance has reasserted itself, in Myanmar Min Aung Hlaing (MAH) has transitioned from being a military Commander-in-chief to President through a managed electoral process. The continued dominance of former military figures in his new government suggests limited substantive change.
The author highlights the persistence of internal conflict since the 2021 military coup, noting that large portions of the country remain outside state control, with ethnic armed organisations and resistance groups maintaining significant sway. Economic conditions have also deteriorated, reflected in declining GDP and reduced trade, with Myanmar falling further behind comparable least-developed countries.
A comparison with the 2011 political transition under Thein Sein also underscores the absence of similar reformist intent today. While Thein Sein pursued political liberalisation, media openness, and economic opening, MAH has so far resisted inclusive dialogue, including ASEAN-led initiatives. However, the author leaves open the possibility that, having secured the presidency, MAH may seek to consolidate his legacy through reform.
Finally, the brief identifies key priorities for any meaningful change: restoring internal peace through political dialogue and prisoner releases, reviving the economy by addressing infrastructure and sectoral weaknesses, and rebalancing external relations.
In conclusion, the author emphasises that Myanmar’s future hinges on whether this power transition evolves into substantive reform or remains superficial, with eventual outcomes carrying significant implications for regional stability. In this context, India is well positioned with its pragmatic engagement, balancing broader strategic interests with support for a more democratic and inclusive future for Myanmar.
To read this DPG Policy Brief Volume XI, Issue 12, please click “Myanmar’s Transition: Cosmetic shift or Substantive change?”.
