Indo-Pacific Monitor
In a military action with a pronounced disruptive impact on the global order, the US Operation Absolute Resolve inserted Delta Force personnel into Caracas on January 03, captured the Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores and transported them to New York to stand trial on charges of narco-terrorism. The operation set an interventionist precedent that could be followedby major powers in other parts of the world, including Taiwan and the larger Indo-Pacific.
The Thailand-Cambodia border remained generally calm following the ceasefire reached bilaterally in December 2025. While large scale combat has subsided, the situation remains volatile. High-level military talks from January 27-29 ended in a deadlock.
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung visited China from January 04-07 and Japan from January 13-14 for back-to-back summits with South Korea’s principal neighbours. The visit to China signalled restoration of ties following the freeze over THAAD deployment in South Korea in 2017, while that to Japan signalled a continuation of the normalisation and shuttle diplomacy pursued by his predecessor. Lee was careful not to get drawn into China-Japan tensions.
UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan visited New Delhi on January 19, continuing the momentum propelling India-UAE ties. Several announcements were made, including decisions to establish a strategic defence partnership and double bilateral trade to $ 200 billion by 2032.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited India on January 12-13 to advance the India-Germany strategic partnership. His thrust was on defence and security, economic and technological cooperation, and skilled migration.
Presidents of the European Council and European Commission Antonio Costa and Ursula von der Leyen made a State Visit to India from January 25-27. Following their talks with Prime Minister Modi, the two sides announced completion of negotiations for the India-EU Free Trade Agreement and an India-EU Security and Defence Partnership. They also adopted a roadmap for the India-EU Strategic Partnership to 2030.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visited China from January 14-17, committing to expanding engagement and announcing a China-Canada Trade Cooperation roadmap.
Italian President Giorgia Meloni visited Japan on January 16, upgrading the bilateral relationship to a Special Strategic Partnership and pledging to accelerate defence and security cooperation, advance secure supply chains and strengthen collaboration on energy.
UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer visited China from January 28-31, focusing on economic growth and trade and repairing bilateral relations in a signal of geopolitical balancing. Starmerfollowed up with a visit to Japan on January 31, focusing on defence and security, supply chain resilience and trade.
Continuing its pressure campaign after Takaichi’s comments on Taiwan, China banned the export of dual use items that could enhanced Japan’s military capabilities on January 06. Japan protested China’s initiating installation of a new structure in the vicinity of the not yet delimited maritime border between the two countries.
Japan and Philippines signed an Access and Cross Servicing Agreement on January 19, marking a further step in the integration of the security architecture in the Western Pacific.
Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi dissolved Japan’s lower house on January 23, in preparation for snap elections on February 08.
US President Donald Trump reversed his stand on the UK’s transfer of sovereignty over Diego Garcia to Mauritius, describing it as an “act of great stupidity”. He said there was no doubt that China and Russia, who recognise only strength, had noticed this act of total weakness, and that the UK decision strengthened the case for the US to acquire Greenland.
Warships from China, Russia, Iran and South Africa came together off Simon’s Town from January 09-16 for Exercise Will for Peace 2026. Observers from Brazil, Egypt and Ethiopia were also presentat the event described as the first defence cooperation activity under the BRICS framework. India did not participate.
The USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group entered the Indian Ocean on January 20, for deployment within range of Iran in preparation for a possible US strike. President Trump warned Iran that time was running out to make a deal on limiting its nuclear programme.
To read this issue, please click Indo-Pacific Monitor Vol. VII, Issue 1.
