India Strategic Review

The ISR features an assessment of key developments, trends, and policies pertaining to India’s immediate and continental neighbourhood and is authored by Lt. Gen. Deependra Singh Hooda (Retd.), Distinguished Fellow for Military Strategy.

During the past month, the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye moved towards operationalisation, as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia escalated. At an emergency meeting in Riyadh on October 5, the three countries agreed to activate deterrence measures and deploy forces to the kingdom. Pakistan also signed the Badr Memorandum of Understanding with Türkiye, Qatar and Indonesia, which seeks to expand defence-industrial cooperation between the countries.

Political confrontation between the government and the opposition Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party came to a head with the imposition of an emergency and governor’s rule in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) on October 11. This gave the Pak military greater operational freedom, but also risked deepening political alienation. The PTI sought to exploit this situation by presenting itself as a defender of the province’s constitutional rights.

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations remained confrontational, with further airstrikes and border clashes during October. Eighth round of Moscow Format consultations ended without agreement between Pakistani and Afghan delegations. The ongoing conflict has also sharply reduced bilateral trade and disrupted Afghan transit cargo through Pakistan.

Afghanistan’s humanitarian situation deteriorated as winter approached. UN agencies warned that 19.2 million people could face acute food insecurity during November 2026-April 2027, despite an improved harvest. On October 5, the International Criminal Court unsealed arrest warrants against the Taliban supreme leader and three senior officials for gender persecution. The Taliban rejected the court’s jurisdiction, and the warrants are unlikely to change their treatment of women.

On October 22, the Director General of the ITBP publicly acknowledged that face-offs with Chinese troops were continuing at several locations in Arunachal Pradesh. China objected to India assigning names to 28 places and geographical features in Ladakh. Improved political engagement has not fully eased tensions over the unsettled boundary.

India and Bangladesh resumed trade working-group talks after a three-year gap, with both sides seeking to remove market-access restrictions. The approaching expiry of the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty presents an immediate test for bilateral ties.

Bangladesh’s GDP growth fell to 3.4 per cent in FY26. The UN General Assembly deferred Bangladesh's graduation from Least Developed Country status to 2029.

Sri Lanka faced a difficult balancing act over Iranian vessels stranded off its coast under US secondary sanctions. Colombo did not resupply the ships, but evacuated 40 sailors who needed medical treatment. China Merchants Port Holdings cancelled its proposed Colombo logistics hub, creating an opening for other investors.

President Muizzu’s state visit to Pakistan from October 20-22 was the first by a Maldivian president in eleven years. The two sides signed 20 MoUs, including agreements on defence and maritime security.

Bhutan and China held the 16th Expert Group Meeting on their boundary in Thimphu. Their technical team reported “positive understandings” on the roadmap for the next phase. For India, the implications of any agreement affecting Doklam and the tri-junction on the boundary remain a central concern.

To read this issue please click India Strategic Review, Vol. VII, Issue 10.