India Strategic Review

The ISR features an assessment of key developments, trends, and policies pertaining to India’s immediate and continental neighbourhood and is authored by Lt. Gen. Deependra Singh Hooda (Retd.), Distinguished Fellow for Military Strategy.

Pakistan’s mediation role in the US-Iran war continued through May, withvisits by Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi and Field Marshal Asim Munir to Tehran. By the end of the month, the US and Iran appeared close to a draft memorandum of understanding. However, renewed US-Iran military exchanges and Iran's refusal to resume talks until Israeli operations in Gaza and Lebanon cease have placed the ceasefire under serious strain.

May marked the first anniversary of Operation Sindoor, India’s cross-border strikes in Pakistan following a terrorist attack in Pahalgam. Pakistan has declared May 10 as Youm-e-Marka-e-Haq, attempting to institutionalise a narrative of victory over India with no acknowledgement of the military setbacks it had suffered during the conflict.

Pakistan’s internal security situation deteriorated sharply during the month. Major Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) attacks in Bannu, Bajaur and South Waziristan, along with a deadly Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) attack on a train carrying security personnel in Quetta, underlined the growing intensity of the dual insurgency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Pakistan’s military operations against Afghanistanhave failed to contain the TTP-BLA threat.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif visited China from May 23-26, whereboth sides agreed to accelerate CPEC 2.0, develop Gwadar as a regional connectivity hub, and strengthen security cooperation. The joint statement’s reference to Jammu and Kashmir drew a strong response from India, which rejected any attempt to legitimise Pakistan’s illegal occupation of Indian territory.

Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis has deepened. The UN has warned of the combined impact of possible mass returns from Iran, renewed Afghanistan-Pakistan hostilities, and acute funding shortages.Humanitarian supply chains have also been disrupted by the closure of Pakistan-Afghanistan border and the impact of the Iran war on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

The situation along the India-China LAC remains stable. The 35th meeting of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border Affairs was held in Beijing on May 27, during which both sides discussed peace and tranquillity, border management, delimitation, and trans-border rivers.

Bangladesh Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman visited China from May 5-7. Dhaka has sought Chinese support for the Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project. India views this development with concern because of the project’s proximity to the Siliguri Corridor. A Pakistan Air Force delegation visited Bangladesh from May 10-14 for the first-ever ‘Air Staff Talks’ between the two countries.Reports indicate that Bangladesh is exploring the purchase of the JF-17 fighter aircraft from Pakistan.

India-Bangladesh relations show signs of gradual diplomatic engagement, but the border has emerged as a source of friction. During the month, there were repeated standoffs between the Border Security Force and the Border Guard Bangladesh over issues of border fencing and repatriation of illegal Bangladeshi migrants from India.

In Nepal, Prime Minister Balendra Shah's government faced a difficult second month in office. His repeated absence from parliamentary proceedings triggered opposition protests, while the Supreme Court stayed key government decisions on dissolving civil service trade unions and student organisations, and on customs duties on low-cost Indian goods.

Despite the IMF approving $695 million in programme funding, Sri Lanka’s economic recovery remains fragile. On May 10, in a meeting between Indian High Commissioner Santosh Jha and Sri Lanka’s Deputy Minister of Finance & Planning Anil Jayantha Fernando, both sides agreed to expedite the implementation of India's $450 million post-Ditwah reconstruction package.

To read this issue please click India Strategic Review, Vol. VII, Issue 5.