India Strategic Review
The ISR features an assessment of key developments, trends, and policies pertaining to India’s immediate and continental neighbourhood and is authored by Lt. Gen. Deependra Singh Hooda (Retd.), Distinguished Fellow for Military Strategy.
Pakistan emerged as a key mediator between Washington and Tehran, hosting high-level US-Iran talks in Islamabad on April 11. However, the talks collapsed without agreement over differences on the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear programme. A second round of talks, proposed for April 25, also did not take place. Although Pakistan is continuing its mediation efforts, it lacks influence over either side, and its position is complicated by its Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement with Saudi Arabia.
Pakistan’s economy remains under pressure from the energy shock, a $3.5 billion debt repayment to the UAE, and continuing IMF conditionalities. The IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook projected Pakistan’s real GDP growth at 3.6 per cent, less than half the projected inflation rate of 7.2 per cent, underscoring the fragility of its economic recovery.
Pakistan-Afghanistan hostilities continued for a third month. China hosted talks between the two sides in Urumqi from April 1-7, but discussions failed to produce a breakthrough. By the end of April, a fragile ceasefire was again in jeopardy after Pakistani attacks in Kunar killed seven people and wounded at least 75.
Afghanistan’s humanitarian situation has worsened with the return of Afghan refugees from Iran, placing additional pressure on already fragile communities. The UN’s 2026 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan is 89 per cent unfunded.
In Bangladesh, the newly elected BNP government faces significant economic and political challenges. The World Bank’s April Bangladesh Development Update projected growth to slow to 3.9 per cent in FY26, with poverty rising for the third consecutive year. The implementation of the July Charter continues to generate political friction, with Jamaat-e-Islami and allied opposition parties pressing for its full implementation.
Bangladesh's Foreign Minister, Dr. Khalilur Rahman, visited New Delhi from April 7-9. Discussions focused on strengthening bilateral ties, easing visas, and Bangladesh's request for increased fuel and fertiliser supplies from India.
Sri Lanka is facing a difficult economic environment due to the combined effects of Cyclone Ditwah, the Iran war, and slowing global trade. The IMF reached a staff-level agreement on Sri Lanka’s Extended Fund Facility, but also warned that the country’s economy remains significantly exposed to the Middle East conflict.
In Nepal, Prime Minister Balendra Shah’s government approved a 100-point reform agenda aimed at downsizing federal ministries, dismantling VIP culture, and depoliticising civil servants and student organisations. However, the resignation of two ministers within the first month over corruption and nepotism issues has raised questions about the government’s ability to deliver transparent governance.
In the Maldives, President Mohamed Muizzu suffered a significant political setback. The April 4 constitutional referendum on holding presidential and parliamentary elections together was defeated by a wide margin. In local council elections, the opposition Maldivian Democratic Party performed strongly in urban centres, winning working majorities in all five city councils. The resignation of 10 cabinet ministers later in the month reflected the political impact of the ruling party’s poor showing.
Bhutan and China held the 15th Expert Group Meeting on their boundary dispute in Beijing from March 30 to April 1. The talks focused on implementing the Three-Step Roadmap and included technical discussions on boundary alignment in areas without disputes. India continues to closely monitor the process, particularly because any settlement involving the Doklam plateau could have implications for the security of the Siliguri Corridor.
To read this issue please click India Strategic Review, Vol. VII, Issue 4.
