Focus Europe

“Focus Europe” features studies of strategic developments and security issues in Europe, the progress of India-EU relations, and India’s ties with major European powers. 

October was a busy month for European diplomacy. The European Council met in Brussels on October 15-16 against a backdrop of growing geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Discussions covered Ukraine, relations with China, competitiveness, energy prices, migration, security and enlargement. A central focus was the EU’s next seven-year budget, and the challenge of matching European ambitions with the resources to deliver them. 

There was broad agreement on priorities, but continuing differences over action. Divisions persist over the pace of change, financial contributions and national sovereignty. Most telling was the failure to reach agreement on the EU’s 2028-34 budget, despite the urgency of the moment. The challenge of translating common ambitions into collective action remains. 

The EU also unveiled a new Arctic strategy on 20 October, building on its 2021 framework. With Russia expanding its military presence, China showing growing interest and new shipping routes opening up, the Arctic is increasingly a strategic priority. The EU plans to strengthen security, infrastructure and cooperation with northern partners. The test will be whether these ambitions translate into action without duplicating the work of NATO and other international bodies. 

Meanwhile, Europe’s drive to diversify partnerships and reduce strategic dependencies continues. Relations with India are gaining momentum, with the FTA negotiations concluded and the agreement awaiting the remaining approval procedures. Engagement with Vietnam, already an FTA partner, continues to deepen. Within Europe, Hungary’s new pro-European government has opened the door to improved relations with Brussels. 

The EU’s relationship with Canada has also entered a new phase, with the launch of an ‘Alliance for the Future’ at their October summit. The partnership reflects a wider effort to strengthen economic security and strategic cooperation. Across the Channel, the EU and UK are preparing for another summit on 20 November, seeking closer practical cooperation, heralding an interesting new chapter in the evolving Brexit story. 

Within EU countries, however, there is increasing volatility. From France, Germany and Italy to Spain, Portugal, Serbia and Albania, protests have reflected growing public discontent. Each movement has its own national context, but rising living costs, housing shortages, deteriorating public services and political grievances are recurring themes. European governments face the difficult task of balancing public expectations with mounting fiscal pressures. 

Sluggish growth, public debt and demands for better social services are now competing with the need for increased defence spending, particularly as the United States presses Europe to assume greater responsibility for its own security. Far-right parties, including Germany’s AfD and France’s National Rally, have sought to capitalise on concerns over immigration and economic insecurity. The larger question is whether Europe’s growing domestic preoccupations will constrain its international ambitions, including its engagement at multilateral forums such as the United Nations.

To read this issue please click Focus Europe, Vol. II, Issue 10.