Focus Europe

“Focus Europe” features studies of strategic developments and security issues in Europe, the progress of India-EU relations, and India’s ties with major European powers. 

The focus of this month’s issue is the NATO Summit held in Ankara, which promised ‘delivery’ against the continuing backdrop of Russia’s war in Ukraine and the broader question of Europe’s future security. 

Ahead of the summit, NATO leaders had already pledged greater investment in defence, stronger industrial capacity, accelerated innovation and the integration of advanced technologies, ensuring that the Alliance remains fit for purpose in an increasingly dangerous world. The outcomes were similarly aligned: renewed commitments of €70 billion in military support for Ukraine in 2026, continued emphasis on procurement and defence-industrial production, and endorsement of initiatives ranging from advanced AI adoption to a transatlantic combat cloud. 

More significant was further evidence that European NATO members are finally walking the talk on defence. Defence spending has risen from around 1.4 per cent of GDP in 2014 to roughly 2.3 per cent today. While NATO’s eastern flank has led this transformation, the momentum now extends across the Nordics, Germany and parts of Southern Europe. This represents the most substantial shift in burden-sharing in decades, driven less by choice than by necessity. 

Ankara reaffirmed the Alliance’s ironclad commitment to Article 5 and the transatlantic bond. Yet, beneath that reassurance lingered doubts over the long-term durability of American commitment. References to Greenland, Washington’s growing strategic focus on China and its preoccupation with the Middle East have all reinforced European perceptions that the United States’ strategic priorities are changing. President Trump’s criticism of European allies during the Iran crisis has only strengthened the view that Europe must become more self-reliant, even while remaining anchored within NATO. 

Europeanisation of NATO raises difficult questions. As Europe assumes greater responsibility for its own security, will it also acquire greater strategic autonomy? And if so, how comfortable will Washington be with a European ally capable of pursuing policies that do not always coincide with American preferences? Equally important is the internal European challenge. Can thirty-two allies, each with distinct strategic cultures, historical experiences and security priorities, maintain cohesion as Europe becomes more capable and more independent? 

This evolution is unfolding alongside a broader diversification of Europe’s external partnerships. Europe is deepening engagements in response to an increasingly fragmented geopolitical landscape. NATO’s outreach reflects the same logic as it has steadily expanded engagement with the Indo-Pacific Four, while also increasing parliamentary and diplomatic contacts across the region, including with India. 

Born as a collective defence alliance in 1949, NATO evolved after the Cold War into an organisation focused on crisis management and cooperative security before returning, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, to deterrence and collective defence. Today it appears to be entering yet another phase, which might be termed ‘NATO 3.0’, one characterised by stronger European leadership within an enduring transatlantic framework. 

Ankara signalled an Alliance increasingly focused on delivery. The real test, however, lies ahead. Can a more autonomous and strategically confident Europe coexist with continued American leadership, or will the very process of strengthening NATO gradually redefine the transatlantic bargain on which it has rested for more than seven decades?

To read this issue please click of Focus Europe, Vol. II, Issue 7.