India-US Relations at Inflection Point
India-US relations are yet again at an inflection point, a development that was hardly anticipated after a successful bilateral summit held on February 13, 2025. There has been a setback to mutual trust, confidence has been shaken, uncertainty has grown, public support in India has dissipated, and the risk of backsliding is manifest.
In this policy brief, the author analyses the key issues underlying the recent setbacks and outlines India’s perspective on the dissonance, noting that India has handled the situation with considerable strategic restraint, leaving the door open for a return to the prior trajectory of ties. However, with the singling out of India for additional tariffs on account of oil purchases from Russia, an already fraught relationship seems to be in a downward spiral.
He points out that India-US relations have had their ample share of difficult moments, and it is axiomatic that even the best of relations need to be carefully nurtured.
Adverse narratives about India have for some time been creating uncertainties for bilateral ties, and in the recent past have turned into even more pointed attacks on India’s strategic independence and sovereign decision making. Limiting its own strategic space to serve US interests is not a policy option for India’s statecraft.
The author observes that the latest episode over tariffs is less about fair trade than it is about the exercise of “aggressive economic leverage” by the US, ostensibly to send signals to third countries and demand one-sided commitments from India. It is unrealistic to expect that India will simply fall in line.
He argues that as the world’s fastest growing major economy, India offers opportunities to partners across the globe. It is also not a mercantilist nation profiteering at the expense of others. India’s rise can only bring benefits to the US and the West. Targeting India is objectively uncalled for and strategically short sighted.
Having invested deeply in the comprehensive partnership with the US for the past decade, PM Modi’s government recognises just how important the US is as a partner for India’s progress and the stability of the Indo-Pacific. This commitment is likely to continue, but also requires true reciprocity and mutual respect from the Trump administration, which at present does not seem to be forthcoming.
There is no question that India is rising under highly adverse global conditions, which will only strengthen its commitment to strategic autonomy, the development of national capabilities, and the pursuit of self reliance in the critical areas of high technology and defence. India’s trade will diversify further, and multi-alignment will remain at the forefront of its diplomacy.
The author concludes that trust, stability and reliability are essential elements for any relationship to prosper. It is not in the interest of the US to prolong the current impasse in bilateral relations, and the onus now rests with the Trump administration.
To read this DPG Policy Brief Vol. X, Issue 23, please click “India-US Relations at Inflection Point”.
